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Measurement and attribution

What is Incrementality testing?

Incrementality testing measures what a marketing activity actually caused, by comparing a group exposed to it against a comparable group that was not. Geographic holdouts, audience splits and time-based tests are the common designs, and the output is a causal estimate rather than an attributed share.

Definition

Definition

Also written: lift testing, geo testing

Incrementality testing measures what a marketing activity actually caused, by comparing a group exposed to it against a comparable group that was not. Geographic holdouts, audience splits and time-based tests are the common designs, and the output is a causal estimate rather than an attributed share.

It answers the question attribution cannot: what would have happened anyway. Channels that capture existing demand — brand search especially — often show far less incremental effect than their attributed credit implies.

The cost is real. A holdout means deliberately not marketing to part of the addressable audience for the test duration, and small tests produce confidence intervals too wide to act on.

The usual error

Where this goes wrong in practice

Running a test too small or too short to detect the effect size that would change a decision, then treating an inconclusive result as evidence of no effect.